The euro continues to flip-flop from one week to the next; it’s strong, it’s weak, it’s strong, and so on. What does this mean? Immediately, it means very little as EUR/USD could still be in a topping process around the 2008 trend-line or building a bull-flag setting it up for an eventual continuation of the rally starting last year.

Either way, we need to wait for confirmation before committing ourselves too strongly. The topping scenario points to a lower-high having been carved out the week before last, and from here we should see the euro weaken towards the April trend-line and 2017 high just under 12100. From that point is where it could get interesting. A top would obviously imply that those levels won’t hold and a broad decline will commence.

However, a hold of the aforementioned support levels keeps the bull-flag scenario in play. If this is the case, it could take out until next month, possibly longer, before making good on a bullish breakout from the pattern and beyond the 2008 trend-line.

Entry point at 1.22870. Take Profit level 1 at 1.23288, Take Profit level 2 at 1.24125. Take Profit level 3 at 1.24419. Stop Loss at 1.22451.